Through industrial development, LED annual output will reach 100 billion level. According to research firm StrategiesUnlimited research estimates, LED lighting market value will reach 5 billion US dollars in 2012. At the same time, the report predicts that LED lighting will be expected to successfully take over LEDTV in 2012, which will be a key year for the development of LED lighting.
The LED industry is obviously a crazy cake. In the face of such a market, how much can a Chinese company share?
Investment expectations continue to soar. "The scale of substrate production in 2010 can no longer be big, and then there is a big explosion." Zhang Xiaofei, chief executive officer of Gaogong LED, said that a total of 12 projects were launched last year and the speed did not slow down in the first quarter of this year. .
"The sapphire substrate has more than 29 million pieces. The epitaxial production last year was 200 units, and this year's plan is 250 units."
Zhang Xiaofei predicted that the sum of investments made last year alone and this year will already exceed the global demand. "I think that after the third quarter of this year, the production capacity will definitely exceed the global demand," he said.
But this is undoubtedly a boon for most Chinese companies. Most LED companies in China mainly use applications. The surge in upstream saturation capacity will give more power to the downstream.
"We must resolutely upstairs to price, and transfer more costs to the upstream to consume." Zhang Xiaofei said. Because, downstream profits have not been high.
The surge in production capacity is due to the constant stimulation of the market. According to the statistics of the LED Industry Research Center of Gaogong Industry, about 222,000 street lamps have been installed in 21 pilot cities in the “Ten Cities in 10 Cities†in 2009, and it is expected to reach 1.12 million in 2011. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total number of street lamps in the country is about 90 million baht. If you calculate by 5,000 yuan per street lamp, the entire market will be around 450 billion yuan.
In 2009, LED lighting output in the global lighting market was approximately US$2.4 billion, and its penetration rate was only 3.3%. It is estimated that the proportion of LED lighting in the global general lighting market will rise to 50% in 2015 and 80% in 2020.
It is based on the common positive judgment of the market that the acquisition and investment of the entire LED industry are also extremely fierce.
In February 2011, the China Securities Journal reported that industry association statistics show that in 2009 the LED industry announced an investment plan of 22 billion yuan. LED investment shows signs of warming up. In 2010, the listed company's LED investment plan alone exceeded 30 billion yuan. Among them, only Sanan Optoelectronics plans to invest 20 billion yuan. BDO Runda announced that it invested RMB 4.1 billion in LED.
In the 2010 Annual Report of Zhejiang Sunshine, it was announced that the total investment for LED in the next three years will be 1 billion yuan. "I estimate that 1 billion will probably be completed in one year. Now the market is one to two hundred million investment are embarrassed to open." Zhang Xiaofei said.
"Analysis," said that in 2010 LED lighting has begun to ferment, compared with 2009, the market demand increased significantly, do LED packaging, LED display companies have also entered the field of LED lighting. At present, there are only a small number of LED packaging companies in the Chinese market. Most of the packaging companies have begun to develop and produce LED lighting products.
Relative to the home market, commercial space lighting is undoubtedly easier for LED companies to enter in terms of price acceptance. The increasingly stringent energy-saving and emission-reduction requirements will increase the use of LEDs in the commercial space.
LEDinside estimates that between 2010 and 2011 will be two years of rapid growth and popularization of LED commercial lighting, while LED lighting applications for home lighting will have to wait until 2011 and 2012, especially 2012 is a critical year.
When the industrial layout is not finished, compared with incandescent lamps, LED can achieve energy saving of 95%. Incandescent lamps have the lowest luminous efficiency, and tungsten halogen lamps are similar. At present, countries around the world have successively launched incandescent lamp elimination road maps.
The main production process of LED is divided into raw materials, epitaxy and chip, packaging, assembly and application.
The current industrial pattern is basically dominated by the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, the Southeast, and the North. Each region has basically formed a relatively complete industrial chain.
The southern industrialization level is relatively high. The Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta are the regions with the highest development and highest industrial density in China. They have concentrated more than 80% of the relevant companies in the country, and the industrial chain is relatively complete.
“The current industry scale is over 20 billion and there are about 4,000 companies.†Jun Jun, Deputy Secretary General of the National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering R&D and Industry Alliance, said: “In addition to the traditional Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, the LED industry is accelerating its development. Accelerate the deployment of such cities as the Yunnan-Guizhou Delta and Xi'an and Chengdu.
The upstream chip manufacturers have a very big impact on the entire industry chain. The chip's profit is the highest.
The companies that can produce substrates and epitaxial wafers in China include Jingneng Optoelectronics, Tianfu Thermoelectricity and Sanan Optoelectronics. However, most of the substrates and epitaxial wafers in the domestic market rely on foreign companies or Taiwan-funded enterprises.
The chip production mainly includes Sanan Optoelectronics, Silan Microelectronics, Lianchuang Optoelectronics and Dalian Lumei. At the same time, domestic chip manufacturers mainly focus on low-power chips.
The leaders of the packaging industry include Dalian Road Name, Qinshang Optoelectronics, and Furi Electronics.
In the entire industry chain, if the profit is divided into pro-rata, the packaging industry can get about 20%, while the chip manufacturing can share 70% of the profits, the lowest profit is the assembly. This is precisely the most prosperous part of China's current development.
The current chip market is dominated by several giants in the world: Nichia Chemical, Cree, and Philips. There are also some domestic companies that do chips, but almost all application manufacturers have stated that they are still "unreasonable" for domestic technology, and almost all chips use imported goods.
In mainland China, the number of upstream manufacturers occupies a small proportion, accounting for only about 3%. The long-term supply shortage of chip products, the backlog of packaging manufacturers' orders has always existed.
Jun Jun believes that there are problems with the repeated construction of companies in China compared with the major manufacturers in the world. Although the localization rate of chips has increased very rapidly, it still occupies the low-end market.
Compared with the manufacturing and production of chips, the packaging in the middle reaches is the largest investment in China in recent years. The key equipment involved in the MOCVD machine is a must for business. The global MOCVD machine platform is almost monopolized by the German AIXTRON and American VEECO companies, and the frenzied investment enthusiasm of Chinese companies has caused the two companies to make big profits. In 2010, VEECO launched the K465I in the Chinese market, which saw revenue increase by 230%.
“Generally speaking, local governments have subsidized the cost of purchasing MOCVD machines by about half.†Industry sources told reporters. This is one of the reasons why MOCVD machine investment has been combined in recent years. In terms of output, China's LED packaging has accounted for 70% of the world, and it has a very high share in the low-end device field.
“The subsidies for MOCVD will not stop,†Zhang Xiaofei told reporters. “The development zones in various local governments are not clear, but they have to make up for them and they must make up.â€
The packaging industry quickly started with government subsidies, and the assembly process further down the road seems to be simpler because it is almost a "manpower-intensive" industry.
"I didn't think about setting up a factory to do assembly before I went to Shenzhen. I only wanted to use it as an application company, but I changed my mind after watching some packaging plants and lighting factories last year." Wang Hongsheng, general manager of Le Guang Hengxiang Technology Co., Ltd., told reporters.
When the reporter asked about the threshold for assembling, Wang Hongsheng asked the reporter with a smile: “How high is the threshold for assembling computers in Zhongguancun?â€
It is because of its low technical threshold that the assembly process has become the most adept and fastest digesting part of the Chinese market.
"Assembly is the least technical, and there is still about 40% of profits. It is worth doing in the start-up market." Wang Hongsheng explained to the reporter his business logic.
There is no doubt about the fierce competition in the assembly process. In fact, more than 2,000 domestic companies are doing indoor commercial lighting applications. Zhang Xiaofei thinks that this kind of competition is very fierce.
In Jun Jun's view, the current LED industry faces several major deficiencies, namely, the small scale of the company, the low degree of industrial clustering, and the local repeated construction. At the same time, the lack of a public R&D platform and equipment technology also need to be broken.
The lack of industry standards The current LED industry is faltering under the foreign patent system and intellectual property protection policy. Patent breakthrough may be one of the important directions of the “Twelfth Five-year Planâ€. For example, silicon substrate technology with independent intellectual property rights in China seems to be a new path for patent breakthroughs.
Jun Jun believes that: "In the 11th Five-Year Plan period, silicon substrate technology has made great progress, and foreign countries now also regard silicon substrate as an important research direction."
At the same time, Yu Jun said that the current applications for intellectual property rights and patents are rapidly increasing, especially the packaging and application links. The “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†has applied for more than 1,000 patents, more than 400 new patents and invention patents, and more than 40 international patents. Quantity and quality are improving.
Hua Shuming, director of the Beijing Institute of Optoelectronics, believes that: “The future development principle of LED is energy saving and has an alternative value.†For example, the color rendering of tungsten halogen lamp is very high, while LED shows a slight loss in color rendering. , so that LED replacement for halogen lamps is relatively small.
Although the technology can be regarded as a certain degree of injury, the lack of LED industry standards is seen as another big industry.
"A lot of specifications are difficult to determine because there are many LED power specifications," said Hua Shuming: Traditional incandescent lamps have a certain level of luminous flux at certain power levels. However, LED has developed rapidly in the past few years. In 2009, 70 lumens/W can be achieved, but this year it does not reach 100 lumens/W, and you do not want to get the project at all.
In the case of ever-increasing light efficiency, power cannot be stipulated individually. He said that users are using luminous flux, not power. Therefore, the current specifications are divided by light parameters and encourage companies to continuously improve their technology.
"So the future standard must be based on luminous flux." Hua Shuming said.
And Jun Jun believes that "LED applications should be said to have standards, national standards, standards and local standards have played a role in promoting the development of the industry." But lighting design does not define which kind of light source must be used, so in terms of performance and safety There are some shortcomings.
Breakthrough in the special lighting market is obviously, to fight the existing energy-saving lamps on the market, and even T5, T8 and other products, LED prices do not seem to have enough advantages.
"It is very dangerous to fight on downlights and bulbs," said Zhang Xiaofei. If you compare prices and technology, it seems that Chinese companies have more disadvantages.
Experts suggest that companies focusing on the general lighting market can enter the special lighting field and must pay attention to market segments. At the 2011 Beijing Lighting Fair, the reporter also noticed special events in entertainment lighting and sports lighting. The China Hotel Purchasing Association is a collective visit and has shown great interest in participating products and lighting solutions.
Many exhibitors told reporters that the current choice of products for customers is mainly focused on products. On the one hand, high prices are barriers, but more importantly, customers do not have enough awareness of LED products, and they generally say that they do not dare to use them.
The formation of a sense of market identity has yet to take a long time, but for companies that have entered the industry, it is only by looking for the pulse of competition. Zhang Xiaofei suggested that companies ask themselves whether they have enough funds, whether they have their own channels, and whether they have their own brands.
Qi Jun also said that during the “12th Five-Year Planâ€, the focus of local government work may be to dredge upstream and downstream mergers and reorganizations, because “China’s top ten companies to make chips do not add up to one Taiwanese company.†This will also It may be a good time for Chinese companies to create their own brands.
Zhang Xiaofei also suggested that companies should not only focus their attention on alternatives, but could seek entry points from technological innovation. Such as the new architectural lighting field.
In the process of promoting the development of the industrial chain, subsidies may still be one of the important means. Hua Shuming revealed that the next step would be to appropriately promote subsidies in the interior direction, such as the replacement of downlights and spotlights. "The energy saving effect of street lamps and tunnel lights is not obvious and the cost performance is not high enough."
The LED industry is obviously a crazy cake. In the face of such a market, how much can a Chinese company share?
Investment expectations continue to soar. "The scale of substrate production in 2010 can no longer be big, and then there is a big explosion." Zhang Xiaofei, chief executive officer of Gaogong LED, said that a total of 12 projects were launched last year and the speed did not slow down in the first quarter of this year. .
"The sapphire substrate has more than 29 million pieces. The epitaxial production last year was 200 units, and this year's plan is 250 units."
Zhang Xiaofei predicted that the sum of investments made last year alone and this year will already exceed the global demand. "I think that after the third quarter of this year, the production capacity will definitely exceed the global demand," he said.
But this is undoubtedly a boon for most Chinese companies. Most LED companies in China mainly use applications. The surge in upstream saturation capacity will give more power to the downstream.
"We must resolutely upstairs to price, and transfer more costs to the upstream to consume." Zhang Xiaofei said. Because, downstream profits have not been high.
The surge in production capacity is due to the constant stimulation of the market. According to the statistics of the LED Industry Research Center of Gaogong Industry, about 222,000 street lamps have been installed in 21 pilot cities in the “Ten Cities in 10 Cities†in 2009, and it is expected to reach 1.12 million in 2011. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total number of street lamps in the country is about 90 million baht. If you calculate by 5,000 yuan per street lamp, the entire market will be around 450 billion yuan.
In 2009, LED lighting output in the global lighting market was approximately US$2.4 billion, and its penetration rate was only 3.3%. It is estimated that the proportion of LED lighting in the global general lighting market will rise to 50% in 2015 and 80% in 2020.
It is based on the common positive judgment of the market that the acquisition and investment of the entire LED industry are also extremely fierce.
In February 2011, the China Securities Journal reported that industry association statistics show that in 2009 the LED industry announced an investment plan of 22 billion yuan. LED investment shows signs of warming up. In 2010, the listed company's LED investment plan alone exceeded 30 billion yuan. Among them, only Sanan Optoelectronics plans to invest 20 billion yuan. BDO Runda announced that it invested RMB 4.1 billion in LED.
In the 2010 Annual Report of Zhejiang Sunshine, it was announced that the total investment for LED in the next three years will be 1 billion yuan. "I estimate that 1 billion will probably be completed in one year. Now the market is one to two hundred million investment are embarrassed to open." Zhang Xiaofei said.
"Analysis," said that in 2010 LED lighting has begun to ferment, compared with 2009, the market demand increased significantly, do LED packaging, LED display companies have also entered the field of LED lighting. At present, there are only a small number of LED packaging companies in the Chinese market. Most of the packaging companies have begun to develop and produce LED lighting products.
Relative to the home market, commercial space lighting is undoubtedly easier for LED companies to enter in terms of price acceptance. The increasingly stringent energy-saving and emission-reduction requirements will increase the use of LEDs in the commercial space.
LEDinside estimates that between 2010 and 2011 will be two years of rapid growth and popularization of LED commercial lighting, while LED lighting applications for home lighting will have to wait until 2011 and 2012, especially 2012 is a critical year.
When the industrial layout is not finished, compared with incandescent lamps, LED can achieve energy saving of 95%. Incandescent lamps have the lowest luminous efficiency, and tungsten halogen lamps are similar. At present, countries around the world have successively launched incandescent lamp elimination road maps.
The main production process of LED is divided into raw materials, epitaxy and chip, packaging, assembly and application.
The current industrial pattern is basically dominated by the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, the Southeast, and the North. Each region has basically formed a relatively complete industrial chain.
The southern industrialization level is relatively high. The Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta are the regions with the highest development and highest industrial density in China. They have concentrated more than 80% of the relevant companies in the country, and the industrial chain is relatively complete.
“The current industry scale is over 20 billion and there are about 4,000 companies.†Jun Jun, Deputy Secretary General of the National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering R&D and Industry Alliance, said: “In addition to the traditional Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, the LED industry is accelerating its development. Accelerate the deployment of such cities as the Yunnan-Guizhou Delta and Xi'an and Chengdu.
The upstream chip manufacturers have a very big impact on the entire industry chain. The chip's profit is the highest.
The companies that can produce substrates and epitaxial wafers in China include Jingneng Optoelectronics, Tianfu Thermoelectricity and Sanan Optoelectronics. However, most of the substrates and epitaxial wafers in the domestic market rely on foreign companies or Taiwan-funded enterprises.
The chip production mainly includes Sanan Optoelectronics, Silan Microelectronics, Lianchuang Optoelectronics and Dalian Lumei. At the same time, domestic chip manufacturers mainly focus on low-power chips.
The leaders of the packaging industry include Dalian Road Name, Qinshang Optoelectronics, and Furi Electronics.
In the entire industry chain, if the profit is divided into pro-rata, the packaging industry can get about 20%, while the chip manufacturing can share 70% of the profits, the lowest profit is the assembly. This is precisely the most prosperous part of China's current development.
The current chip market is dominated by several giants in the world: Nichia Chemical, Cree, and Philips. There are also some domestic companies that do chips, but almost all application manufacturers have stated that they are still "unreasonable" for domestic technology, and almost all chips use imported goods.
In mainland China, the number of upstream manufacturers occupies a small proportion, accounting for only about 3%. The long-term supply shortage of chip products, the backlog of packaging manufacturers' orders has always existed.
Jun Jun believes that there are problems with the repeated construction of companies in China compared with the major manufacturers in the world. Although the localization rate of chips has increased very rapidly, it still occupies the low-end market.
Compared with the manufacturing and production of chips, the packaging in the middle reaches is the largest investment in China in recent years. The key equipment involved in the MOCVD machine is a must for business. The global MOCVD machine platform is almost monopolized by the German AIXTRON and American VEECO companies, and the frenzied investment enthusiasm of Chinese companies has caused the two companies to make big profits. In 2010, VEECO launched the K465I in the Chinese market, which saw revenue increase by 230%.
“Generally speaking, local governments have subsidized the cost of purchasing MOCVD machines by about half.†Industry sources told reporters. This is one of the reasons why MOCVD machine investment has been combined in recent years. In terms of output, China's LED packaging has accounted for 70% of the world, and it has a very high share in the low-end device field.
“The subsidies for MOCVD will not stop,†Zhang Xiaofei told reporters. “The development zones in various local governments are not clear, but they have to make up for them and they must make up.â€
The packaging industry quickly started with government subsidies, and the assembly process further down the road seems to be simpler because it is almost a "manpower-intensive" industry.
"I didn't think about setting up a factory to do assembly before I went to Shenzhen. I only wanted to use it as an application company, but I changed my mind after watching some packaging plants and lighting factories last year." Wang Hongsheng, general manager of Le Guang Hengxiang Technology Co., Ltd., told reporters.
When the reporter asked about the threshold for assembling, Wang Hongsheng asked the reporter with a smile: “How high is the threshold for assembling computers in Zhongguancun?â€
It is because of its low technical threshold that the assembly process has become the most adept and fastest digesting part of the Chinese market.
"Assembly is the least technical, and there is still about 40% of profits. It is worth doing in the start-up market." Wang Hongsheng explained to the reporter his business logic.
There is no doubt about the fierce competition in the assembly process. In fact, more than 2,000 domestic companies are doing indoor commercial lighting applications. Zhang Xiaofei thinks that this kind of competition is very fierce.
In Jun Jun's view, the current LED industry faces several major deficiencies, namely, the small scale of the company, the low degree of industrial clustering, and the local repeated construction. At the same time, the lack of a public R&D platform and equipment technology also need to be broken.
The lack of industry standards The current LED industry is faltering under the foreign patent system and intellectual property protection policy. Patent breakthrough may be one of the important directions of the “Twelfth Five-year Planâ€. For example, silicon substrate technology with independent intellectual property rights in China seems to be a new path for patent breakthroughs.
Jun Jun believes that: "In the 11th Five-Year Plan period, silicon substrate technology has made great progress, and foreign countries now also regard silicon substrate as an important research direction."
At the same time, Yu Jun said that the current applications for intellectual property rights and patents are rapidly increasing, especially the packaging and application links. The “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†has applied for more than 1,000 patents, more than 400 new patents and invention patents, and more than 40 international patents. Quantity and quality are improving.
Hua Shuming, director of the Beijing Institute of Optoelectronics, believes that: “The future development principle of LED is energy saving and has an alternative value.†For example, the color rendering of tungsten halogen lamp is very high, while LED shows a slight loss in color rendering. , so that LED replacement for halogen lamps is relatively small.
Although the technology can be regarded as a certain degree of injury, the lack of LED industry standards is seen as another big industry.
"A lot of specifications are difficult to determine because there are many LED power specifications," said Hua Shuming: Traditional incandescent lamps have a certain level of luminous flux at certain power levels. However, LED has developed rapidly in the past few years. In 2009, 70 lumens/W can be achieved, but this year it does not reach 100 lumens/W, and you do not want to get the project at all.
In the case of ever-increasing light efficiency, power cannot be stipulated individually. He said that users are using luminous flux, not power. Therefore, the current specifications are divided by light parameters and encourage companies to continuously improve their technology.
"So the future standard must be based on luminous flux." Hua Shuming said.
And Jun Jun believes that "LED applications should be said to have standards, national standards, standards and local standards have played a role in promoting the development of the industry." But lighting design does not define which kind of light source must be used, so in terms of performance and safety There are some shortcomings.
Breakthrough in the special lighting market is obviously, to fight the existing energy-saving lamps on the market, and even T5, T8 and other products, LED prices do not seem to have enough advantages.
"It is very dangerous to fight on downlights and bulbs," said Zhang Xiaofei. If you compare prices and technology, it seems that Chinese companies have more disadvantages.
Experts suggest that companies focusing on the general lighting market can enter the special lighting field and must pay attention to market segments. At the 2011 Beijing Lighting Fair, the reporter also noticed special events in entertainment lighting and sports lighting. The China Hotel Purchasing Association is a collective visit and has shown great interest in participating products and lighting solutions.
Many exhibitors told reporters that the current choice of products for customers is mainly focused on products. On the one hand, high prices are barriers, but more importantly, customers do not have enough awareness of LED products, and they generally say that they do not dare to use them.
The formation of a sense of market identity has yet to take a long time, but for companies that have entered the industry, it is only by looking for the pulse of competition. Zhang Xiaofei suggested that companies ask themselves whether they have enough funds, whether they have their own channels, and whether they have their own brands.
Qi Jun also said that during the “12th Five-Year Planâ€, the focus of local government work may be to dredge upstream and downstream mergers and reorganizations, because “China’s top ten companies to make chips do not add up to one Taiwanese company.†This will also It may be a good time for Chinese companies to create their own brands.
Zhang Xiaofei also suggested that companies should not only focus their attention on alternatives, but could seek entry points from technological innovation. Such as the new architectural lighting field.
In the process of promoting the development of the industrial chain, subsidies may still be one of the important means. Hua Shuming revealed that the next step would be to appropriately promote subsidies in the interior direction, such as the replacement of downlights and spotlights. "The energy saving effect of street lamps and tunnel lights is not obvious and the cost performance is not high enough."
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