2011-2016 investment in packaging equipment will reach 200 billion U.S. dollars so far, LED packaging mainly relies on the IC industry to modify equipment and materials, although they can effectively reduce the cost of LED, improve performance, but can not meet the specific needs of LED devices, and thus limiting The development of the LED industry. Yole Developpement of France predicts that US$2 billion will be invested in dedicated LED packaging equipment between 2011 and 2016. This is because packaging accounts for 20-60% of the total cost of LED devices, which is an important part of reducing LED cost; and the LED market is already With a good momentum of development, equipment suppliers and material suppliers will definitely devote themselves to the research and development of LED manufacturing and packaging, with a view to increase production and improve material efficiency, thereby significantly reducing costs. Yole expects to invest $2 billion in laser stripping, permanent bonding of chips, cutting and testing equipment.
Overcapacity will exceed 50% in certain sectors of the mid-term industry in 2012
Yole also believes that although the development trend of the LED industry is upwards, the growth cannot be linear, but it will be a pattern of slight fluctuations. As the industry generally believes that the general lighting market will reach 20 billion U.S. dollars in production by 2020, any manufacturer does not want its own capacity to be insufficient at that time, resulting in a large-scale investment boom starting in 2009 and is expected to continue into early 2012. This wave of investment fever originally originated in South Korea and was later warmed by China’s subsidies and fiscal stimulus. This wave of investment fever will lead to over 50% of the global average production capacity excess (capacity utilization rate less than 50%) in certain sectors of the mid-2012 industry.
Demand for packaged equipment will decline in the beginning of 2012 from December to 18th. Over the past two years, LED packaging equipment has also experienced excessive investment. The over-capacity digestion will lead to a decline in demand over a period of time. Yole expects that the decline will occur in early 2012 and continue to In mid-2013, it will continue for 12-18 months. During this period, capacity utilization will gradually increase to the normal level of 80%, and companies will be merged. In mid-2013, stimulated by the growth in demand in the general lighting sector, a new wave of investment will emerge. In 2016, there may be a slight correction to absorb the newly generated excess capacity.
Smooth growth of materials and components Yole believes that the growth of the performance of materials and components suppliers is relatively stable, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 27.6% for 2011-2016. The growth of package substrate manufacturers will be the fastest, with a compound annual growth rate of 45%. The price pressure of phosphors is relatively high, but it can still maintain a double-digit growth of 12%, and there is much room for innovation. To reduce the lumen per LED production cost, it is still important to package substrates and phosphors.
Overcapacity will exceed 50% in certain sectors of the mid-term industry in 2012
Yole also believes that although the development trend of the LED industry is upwards, the growth cannot be linear, but it will be a pattern of slight fluctuations. As the industry generally believes that the general lighting market will reach 20 billion U.S. dollars in production by 2020, any manufacturer does not want its own capacity to be insufficient at that time, resulting in a large-scale investment boom starting in 2009 and is expected to continue into early 2012. This wave of investment fever originally originated in South Korea and was later warmed by China’s subsidies and fiscal stimulus. This wave of investment fever will lead to over 50% of the global average production capacity excess (capacity utilization rate less than 50%) in certain sectors of the mid-2012 industry.
Demand for packaged equipment will decline in the beginning of 2012 from December to 18th. Over the past two years, LED packaging equipment has also experienced excessive investment. The over-capacity digestion will lead to a decline in demand over a period of time. Yole expects that the decline will occur in early 2012 and continue to In mid-2013, it will continue for 12-18 months. During this period, capacity utilization will gradually increase to the normal level of 80%, and companies will be merged. In mid-2013, stimulated by the growth in demand in the general lighting sector, a new wave of investment will emerge. In 2016, there may be a slight correction to absorb the newly generated excess capacity.
Smooth growth of materials and components Yole believes that the growth of the performance of materials and components suppliers is relatively stable, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 27.6% for 2011-2016. The growth of package substrate manufacturers will be the fastest, with a compound annual growth rate of 45%. The price pressure of phosphors is relatively high, but it can still maintain a double-digit growth of 12%, and there is much room for innovation. To reduce the lumen per LED production cost, it is still important to package substrates and phosphors.
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