The balance treasure cancelled the unrestricted T+0 redemption on Thursday, and exceeded 50,000 yuan for at least T+1. In terms of revenue, after falling below the 6% mark on March 2nd, Yuebao’s annualized yield on the 7th fell to its current 5.13%.
Yuebao's yield may fall below 5% in the first week of May. According to the SHIBOR data, the return rate of the Yunhe will gradually rise from mid-May.
In addition, in the first quarter of this year, Yu's net purchase ratio fell to 38.7%, that is, 61.3 yuan was redeemed for each purchase of 100 yuan, and this trend is expected to continue in the second quarter. The industry believes that in June when market funds are tight, the yield of Yue Bao may still rise significantly.
When will the forecast fall below 5%? First week of May
On March 1st of this year, it is predicted that the yield of the Yuebao will fall below 6% for the three days before March. On March 2, the yield of Yue Bao fell to 5.971%.
Datong Securities analyst Zhang Cheng believes that in June 2013, when Zhang Baogang was on line, it was at a time when the market was suffering cash shortages and the funding side was extremely tense. “This caused the balance of June’s yield to fluctuate greatly in June of last year and may have a comparison with the forecast results. Obvious effect."
According to Zhang Cheng's suggestion, the historical data from July 1, 2013 to April 25, 2014 will be used for analysis and calculation. The results show that the yield of Yu'e Bao will fall below 5% between May 3 and May 5. If the tolerance ratio is controlled at 0.1%, it is expected that in the first week of May, the yield of the Yuebao will break 5%.
When did it stop falling? About mid-May
The Tianhong Zenglibao money fund behind Yu'ebao is a major investment agreement deposit, so its yield rate is directly related to the agreed deposit interest rate. In general, the tighter the market funds, the higher the interest rate on the agreement deposit. In China, the data that can directly reflect the degree of market capital tension is SHIBOR (interbank interbank offering rate).
In the March 1 survey, the SHIBOR trend from January 2006 to March 2014 was calculated. It was found that the lowest SHIBOR value occurred in March of calendar year and the highest probability of occurrence in June was the highest. Compared with the changes in the yield ratio since the birth of Yu Bao and the trend of SHIBOR over the same period, it can be found that they are basically the same.
This time again with the calculation of the SHIBOR data for the past 9 years, it was found that the SHIBOR will reach the lowest point of 4.2352% around May 6th and gradually rise thereafter. If taking into account the tolerance of around 0.1%, it is expected that around mid-May, the yield of the Yunbao will gradually increase with the SHIBOR.
Do you have a large proportion of redemptions? Net purchases fell more than
As of the end of March 2014, the total scale of Yu'ebao reached 541.725 billion yuan. Some fund industry sources estimated that in mid-March, the amount of Yu'ebao should have exceeded 600 billion yuan, which means that it had experienced a large percentage of redemptions in late March.
According to statistics released by Yu Bao and Tianhong Funds, from the third quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014, both the average yield and the amount of purchases of Yuen Bo rose, but its net subscription ratio continued to decline. In the first quarter of this year, the net subscription ratio was only 38.7%. That is, for each purchase of 100 yuan, 61.3 yuan was redeemed by the user, and the capital was quickly lost.
According to a person in the banking industry, the increase in the average yield of Yu'e Bao in the first quarter was mainly due to tight market funds and high yield before the Spring Festival. “Actually, the yield of Yu'an Bao in March has been falling very sharply, and WeChat. High-yield internet wealth management products, such as wealth management, have come on line one after another and have also caused a certain diversion of their funds.
According to a rough calculation, in the second quarter of this year, the net purchase ratio of Yu'e Bao may further decline to approximately 29.4%.
Affected by the rate of return? Large policy factors
Is the amount of redemption increasing, does it mean that the users of Yuebao are "escaped" due to the drop in the rate of return? In this regard, Yi Huanhuan, deputy director of the Hongyuan Securities Research Institute, said in the morning that the two are not very relevant.
“The balance of return rate of the Yu’e Bao continued to decline, and in addition to the looser market liquidity, the policy side has also had a significant impact.†Yi Huanhuan said that the central bank’s position and pressure on the banks in the near future all have an impact on users’ judgments and choices.
In addition, Yi Huanhuan believes that at present, the balance of credit has reached a considerable scale. “For a large-scale money fund, it will raise the reserve ratio to ensure the liquidity of funds for security reasons. Therefore, the net purchase ratio may be reduced, and it may be the balance. Bao limits and manages the scale to prevent accidents."
For the later trend, Yi Huanhuan believes that the balance of return rate of Yu Bao is greatly affected by the policy and will stabilize at around 3% to 4% in the long term. “But this does not mean that it will remain in this range and it will only be The average value of a year. When the market funds are tight and SHIBOR is high, the yield of Yue Bao will inevitably increase."
“Generally speaking, the SHIBOR of the calendar year is lower in March and higher in June. If the capital is still as tight as last year in June this year, it is expected that the yield of Yue Bao will also rebound significantly.†Yi Huanhuan Analysis said.
Yu Treasure will no longer support unrestricted instant redemption. According to the Alipay announcement, starting from April 24th, if the total number of transfer days exceeds 50,000 yuan, it will default to ordinary transfer. In the transfer-out time, if the user applies for a transfer before 15 o'clock on the working day, the user will arrive at 24 o'clock on the next working day, that is, T+1; and if it is transferred after 15 o'clock on the same day, it must be in the next two. You can arrive at 24:00 on the working day, which is T+2.
In addition, if the user submits a transfer application on a non-working day, the user will be able to arrive at 24 am on the next two working days. As for the redemption below 50,000 yuan, it still supports 2 hours of arrival and real-time arrival.
In addition, Alipay also stipulates that the number of transfer from the balance of treasure to the bank card is 3 times a day, and the transfer from Qianbao to Alipay's balance will not be restricted by the number of transfer. At the same time, the transfer sharing limit of Yubao and Yuebao is 50,000 yuan per day and 200,000 yuan per month.
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